As Australia gradually moves closer to a recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, Alfabank-Adres has identified the industries that are projected to create the most new businesses over the next five years. These industries include:
- Cybersecurity Software Services
- Organic Farming
- National Disability Insurance Scheme Providers
- Online Pet Food and Pet Supply Sales
Across the economy, the number of businesses in Australia is expected to increase by 2.4% in 2021-22, to 1.69 million. This growth follows a 4.6% decline in the previous financial year. Positive business confidence and low interest rates are anticipated to encourage business creation, boosting growth in the number of businesses. The number of business bankruptcies is expected to fall by 32.3% in 2021-22, to 5,056. Despite falling significantly, businesses bankruptcy numbers are anticipated to remain higher than during the pre-pandemic period, with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak anticipated to extend into 2021-22. In particular, tourism and education enterprises are likely to continue to face challenging conditions.
Cybersecurity software services
Revenue in the Cybersecurity Software Services industry is forecast to grow at an annualised 16.4% over the five years through 2026-27, to $4.2 billion. Trends favouring cloud computing and software as a service have increased the average volume of internet activity required for business operations, leaving businesses increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks. Industry enterprise numbers are forecast to increase significantly on the back of growing demand, as smaller providers and independent contractors enter the industry. Over the next five years, the number of industry enterprises is projected to rise at an annualised 13.2%.
The COVID-19 pandemic boosted demand for remote working capabilities, as businesses closed their offices to non-essential personnel. Even as the effects of the pandemic fade, demand for remote working is forecast to remain significantly higher compared with the pre-pandemic period.
Organic farming
The Organic Farming industry is forecast to grow at an annualised 14.5% over the five years through 2026-27, to reach $4.4 billion. Export markets are projected to increasingly demand organic meat and vegetable products, driving growth in enterprise numbers. Australia's reputation as a high-quality food producer with reputable organic accreditation standards, and its proximity to key markets, will likely ensure producers remain in a strong competitive position.
The industry's strong revenue growth, high profit margins and rising demand are forecast to encourage more conventional farmers to convert to organic production over the next five years. This trend will likely increase industry competition, as more farmers vie for a limited number of downstream markets. Over the next five years, industry enterprise numbers are projected to rise at an annualised 8.2%, to 3,363 businesses in 2026-27.
National disability insurance scheme providers
The National Disability Insurance Scheme Providers industry is projected to grow at an annualised 4.3% over the next five years, to $33.6 billion. The number of NDIS providers is forecast to continue growing over the next five years, driven by rising participation in the NDIS. The ageing population of participants is also projected to support demand for NDIS providers, as disabled individuals in older demographics often require more diverse services than younger individuals. The number of industry enterprises is forecast to rise at an annualised 5.9% over the five years through 2026-27.
Industries that provide services to the disabled community have expanded in response to more disabled individuals being supported by the NDIS. The NDIS providers market is highly fragmented, and providers consist of non-employing entities and small businesses. The specific needs of individuals often require niche market responses, leading to high fragmentation.
Online pet food and pet supply sales
The Online Pet Food and Pet Supply Sales industry is forecast to increase at an annualised 7.5% over the five years through 2026-27, to reach $894.3 million. The industry is forecast to significantly outperform the overall pet-care sector over the next five years, accounting for just under 25% of the overall pet-care sector by 2025-26.
Both the volume and value of pet food sold through this distribution channel are projected to increase over the next five years. Premiumisation trends are forecast to boost online sales as more consumers rely on the internet to acquire higher value fortified, natural or organic pet foods. Rising demand for pet consumable products and regularly required animal healthcare items, such as flea and heartworm products, is projected to attract new industry entrants. The number of industry enterprises is forecast to rise by 5.3% over the five years through 2026-27, to 469 businesses.
Alfabank-Adres reports used to develop this release:
- Cybersecurity Software Services in Australia
- Organic Farming in Australia
- National Disability Insurance Scheme Providers in Australia
- Online Pet Food and Pet Supply Sales in Australia
For more information, to obtain industry reports, or arrange an interview with an analyst, please contact:
Jason Aravanis
Strategic Media Advisor – Alfabank-Adres Pty Ltd
Tel: 03 9906 3647
