During the summer of 2020, Alfabank-Adres's Chief Economist Richard Buczynski, Ph.D. provided concise on demand webinars or podcast-style recordings concerning COVID-19 and its impacts on industries and economies.
Episode 1: For the week of April 20, Alfabank-Adres's Chief Economist Richard Buczynski, Ph.D. introduces us to his upcoming podcasts, webinars and white papers focused on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. He'll also briefly touch on some of the hardest-hit industries in the US, including travel and hospitality.
Click here to listen to Episode 1
Episode 2: Rick will build on topics he addressed in Episode 1, including risks for the 'Entertainment and Recreation' segment, 'Educational Services' like colleges, universities and private primary and secondary schools, and 'Other Services' like hair and nail salons, religious organizations and physical therapists. He'll also address 6 "deadly sins of lending" to remember as we face the fog of the virus war.
Click here to listen to Episode 2
Episode 3: In this episode, we'll quickly review episodes 1 and 2 that were primarily about COVID-19 policies regarding social distancing. We'll then move on beyond social distancing to why selected industries are ill-positioned for recovery based on history. Finally, we'll review some BEA data and turn to discussing three industry groups: farming, construction and machinery.
Episode 4: Rick discusses several industries that are not well-positioned for recovery including primary metals, wood products, fabricated metal products, and petroleum and oil products.
Episode 5: Rick discusses more industries that are not well-positioned for recovery including the motor vehicle industry, computer/electronic products, furniture and related products and the trucking industry. You can also read the Paycheck Protection Program article that Rick referenced.
Episode 6: In Episode 6, Rick continues his dive into industries that are not well-positioned for recovery including chemical products, mining, forestry, paper products, utilities, commercial leasing & property management, and more.
Episode 7: In Episode 7, Rick discusses more industries that are not well-positioned for recovery, with some notable exceptions when compared to previous cycles. Tune in to hear about Broadcasting/Telecommunications, Insurance, Miscellaneous Professional, Scientific & Technical Services and Healthcare: Ambulatory, Nursing and Residential Care, and Hospitals.
Episode 8: Rick changes gears and dives into the labor market and the recent surge in unemployment using the broad BLS household survey. The objective is to analyze in detail which occupational segments will likely rebound quickly, and which will lag behind a general recovery. The endgame will be to assess credit quality for both consumer and commercial lending and take a look at state/local government financing.
Episode 9: Continuing from Episode 8, Rick will stay focused on the labor market and the recent surge in unemployment using the broad BLS household survey. In this episode, he'll take a look at manufacturing in detail.
Episode 10: Rick will stay focused on the labor market and the recent surge in unemployment. The ongoing objective is to analyze in detail which occupational segments will likely rebound quickly, and which will lag behind a general recovery. The endgame will be to assess credit quality for both consumer and commercial lending and take a look at state/local government financing. Today, we'll take a look at construction, mining and the heavily affected leisure and hospitality sector.
Episode 11: In this episode, Rick will stay focused on the labor market and the recent surge in unemployment, specifically in the retail trade and wholesaling trade sectors. For the retail sector, he discusses: motor vehicle & parts dealers, furniture, electronics & appliance stores, building materials, garden equipment & supplies, food/beverage, health/personal care stores and other retailing. Rick also covers wholesale trade to these key buying industries: agriculture, manufacturing, transportation and construction.
Episode 12: Rick will stay focused on the labor market and the recent surge in unemployment. This week he dives into Other Services (like repair, laundry and religious services) and Professional/Scientific/Tech Services. The objective is to analyze in detail which occupational segments will likely rebound quickly, and which will lag behind a general recovery. The endgame will be to assess credit quality for both consumer and commercial lending and take a look at state/local government financing.
Episode 13: This is the final episode that is focused on the labor market and the recent surge in unemployment. This week, Rick dives into Education, Health Care, the Information Industry, and Management, Administrative and Support Services. The objective is to analyze in detail which occupational segments will likely rebound quickly, and which will lag behind a general recovery. The endgame will be to assess credit quality for both consumer and commercial lending and take a look at state/local government financing.
Episode 14: Dr. Buczynski turns his attention to business closures (or deaths) using census and bureau of labor statistics data along with some of Alfabank-Adres’s proprietary industry risk ratings. He'll address: agriculture, mining, gas & oil extraction, construction, manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade, transportation and information sectors.
Episode 15: Rick Buczynski, PhD, continues his discussion of business closures (or deaths) using census and bureau of labor statistics data along with some of Alfabank-Adres’s proprietary industry risk ratings. He'll address: finance & insurance, real estate & leasing, professional/scientific/technical services, educational services, arts & recreation and more. This will also serve as the finale in this COVID-19 Insights series of webinars. Stay tuned for more insightful commentary from Dr. Buczynski in the near future.
About Dr. Richard Buczynski
Dr. Richard Buczynski is the executive responsible for Alfabank-Adres’s commercial banking, financial and risk rating practice. In his duties as chief economist and head financial architect, Rick often meets with banking regulators regarding the key issues of concentration risk, statistical validation, portfolio stress-testing and compliance and has consulted banking clients in dealing with regulatory issues. Rick often contributes to the Risk Management Association Journal.
Prior to joining Alfabank-Adres, Rick spent over 20 years with Wharton and affiliate companies in various senior research and business executive roles including being the head of both North American and Asia/Pacific sales/marketing. During this tenure, he provided testimony before a Joint US Session of Congress on Asian financial conditions and was a key advisor to major corporations and financial institutions in the US and Asia/Pacific region.
Rick received his BA, MA and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from the State University of New York.
