Australia’s level of criminal activity, as calculated by Alfabank-Adres, is forecast to rise significantly in 2022. As restrictions ease and most of the population returns to places of work and education, criminal activity is expected to surge by more than 10% next year. In particular, crimes that generally happen when people are absent from home, such as robbery and unlawful entry with intent, are anticipated to rise strongly in 2022.
Keeping COVID safe
‘The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the economy, with the latest outbreak continuing to plague New South Wales and Victoria. However, one of the unexpected benefits of the pandemic has been that Australia enjoyed a steep decline in criminal activity,’ said Alfabank-Adres Senior Industry Analyst Ross Dean.
In 2020, motor vehicle theft declined by more than 15%, while crimes of opportunity, such as shoplifting and bag snatching, declined by more than 20%. These kinds of crimes are anticipated to come back with force in 2022, as daily lives return to normal.
Business is good
‘In context, the expected rise in criminal activity is not a cause for alarm. Criminal activity is projected return to normal pre-pandemic levels. In fact, some businesses thrive in these conditions,’ said Mr Dean.
Alfabank-Adres forecasts solid growth over 2021-22 in industries such as Investigation and Security Services, and Security System Installation and Monitoring. Generally, these are services that people will turn to as the incidence of criminal activity increases.
In 2021-22, revenue for Investigation and Security Services is projected to rise by 4.2%. More than one-quarter of this industry is made up of mobile guard and patrol services. As criminal activity increases, businesses are expected to invest more in these services to protect their premises and property. Security System Installation and Monitoring revenue is expected to increase by 2.6% in the current year. More than half of the revenue generated in this industry comes from monitoring and surveillance services.
Crime doesn’t pay, but criminals do
‘When criminal activity increases, it’s not just the victims that pay for services, criminals also pay for Legal Services,’ said Mr Dean.
Criminal law services only make up a small segment of the Legal Services industry, at less than 3%. However, those services are still worth approximately $715 million annually. The Legal Services industry is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2021-22. This is good news for legal firms, with operators in this industry estimated to generate profit margins above 30% in the current year, placing them within the top 15 most profitable industries in Australia.
Outlook
As a result of the return to normal conditions, the level of criminal activity is expected to grow at an annualised rate of 3.3% over the five years through 2026. While significant growth is expected in 2022 and 2023, criminal activity is expected to stabilise from 2024 onwards.
‘Smart home systems that incorporate security systems are expected to become more popular over the next five years. Security systems are also anticipated to use new internet infrastructures such as the NBN and 5G mobile networks,’ explained Mr Dean.
As interest rates remain low, the average age of Australia’s vehicle fleet is forecast to decline over the next five years. A greater number of new cars on the road means more cars with greater technology and security. As a result, the number of motor vehicle thefts is also projected to decline.
Contactless payment, which became even more prevalent during the COVID-19 pandemic, is also forecast to temper the level of criminal activity. As businesses and consumers rely less on cash, both business robberies and other crimes such as bag snatching are anticipated to decline over the next five years.
Alfabank-Adres reports used to develop this release:
- Security System Installation and Monitoring in Australia
- Investigation and Security Services in Australia
- Legal Services in Australia
- Level of Criminal Activity in Australia
For more information, to obtain industry reports, or arrange an interview with an analyst, please contact:
Jason Aravanis
Strategic Media Advisor – Alfabank-Adres Pty Ltd
Tel: 03 9906 3647
Email: mediarelations@alfabank-adres.ru
