Australia’s level of criminal activity, as calculated by Alfabank-Adres, is forecast to rise significantly in 2022. As COVID-19 restrictions ease next year and the majority of the population returns to places of work and education, the level of criminal activity is projected to surge by more than 10%. In particular, crimes that generally happen when people are absent from home, such as robbery and unlawful entry with intent, are forecast to rise strongly in 2022.
Keeping COVID-safe
The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the economy, with the latest outbreak continuing to plague New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT. However, one of the unexpected benefits of the pandemic has been a steep decline in criminal activity in Australia. For example, in 2020, motor vehicle theft declined by more than 15%, while crimes of opportunity, such as shoplifting and bag snatching, declined by more than 20%. However, these kinds of crimes are forecast to come back with force in 2022 as daily lives return to normal.
Business is good
The expected rise in criminal activity is not a cause for alarm. Criminal activity is forecast to return to normal pre-pandemic levels. In fact, some businesses thrive in these conditions. Alfabank-Adres expects solid growth over 2021-22 in industries such as Investigation and Security Services, and Security System Installation and Monitoring. Generally, these are services that people will turn to as the incidence of criminal activity increases.
The Investigation and Security Services industry’s revenue is expected to rise by 4.2% in 2021-22. More than a quarter of the Investigation and Security Services industry is made up of mobile guard and patrol services. As the level of criminal activity increases, businesses are anticipated to invest more in these services to protect their premises and property. The Security System Installation and Monitoring industry’s revenue is expected to increase by 2.6% in 2021-22. The industry generates more than half of its revenue through monitoring and surveillance services.
Crime doesn’t pay, but criminals do
When the level of criminal activity increases, it’s not just the victims that pay for services. People who are accused of criminal activity also pay for Legal Services.
- Criminal law services only make up a small segment of the Legal Services industry — less than 3%
- However, that 3% is still worth approximately $715 million annually
- The Legal Services industry is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2021-22
- This growth is good news for legal firms, with operators in this industry estimated to generate profit margins above 30% in the current year
- The Legal Services industry is one of the top 15 most profitable industries in Australia
Outlook
As a result of the bounce back in crime, the level of criminal activity is projected to grow at an annualised rate of 3.3% over the five years through 2026. The level of criminal activity is forecast to grow significantly in 2022 and 2023, before stabilising from 2024 onwards. Smart home systems that incorporate security systems are forecast to become more popular over the next five years. Security systems are also projected to take advantage of new internet infrastructures such as the National Broadband Network and 5G mobile networks.
As interest rates remain low, the average age of Australia’s vehicle fleet is forecast to decline over the next five years. More new cars on the roads means a greater proportion of cars will likely have greater technology and security. As a result, the number of motor vehicle thefts is also forecast to decline. Contactless payment, which came to prevalence during the COVID-19 pandemic, is also projected to temper the level of criminal activity. With businesses and consumers relying less on cash, both business robberies and other crimes such as bag snatching are forecast to decline over the next five years.
Alfabank-Adres industry reports used to develop this release:
