Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Alfabank-Adres has forecast the following New Zealand industries to exhibit the strongest growth in export revenue across the economy in 2021-22:
- Poultry Processing in New Zealand
- Kiwifruit and Berry Growing in New Zealand
- Gold Ore Mining in New Zealand
- Forestry and Logging in New Zealand
- Fishing and Aquaculture in New Zealand
Merchandise trade exports from New Zealand are expected to rise by 3.1% in 2021-22, to $59.7 billion. This follows a decline of 4.5% in the prior financial year. The COVID-19 pandemic is anticipated to continue hindering trade globally, as countries grapple with ongoing quarantine measures. However, economic conditions for exporters in New Zealand are expected to gradually improve as the global vaccine rollout continues. This factor is expected to enable a recovery for many industries that were severely disrupted over the previous two years.
Poultry processing
Export revenue for the Poultry Processing industry is expected to increase by 23.2% in 2021-22, to $79.6 million. This represents the fastest growth in exports across all New Zealand industries in the current financial year. A recovery in the hospitality sector across major export markets is anticipated to drive a resurgence in demand for poultry products. In addition, exports to Australia are expected to resume in the second half of 2021, following an outbreak of bursal virus in September 2019, which previously curtailed exports.
Growth in exports this year represents a partial recovery from the downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the five years through 2026-27, export revenue is expected to increase at an annualized 6.5%, to reach $109.3 million. High-end food-service customers in Japan, while still only a minor export market, represent an opportunity for expanding premium poultry exports.
Kiwifruit and berry growing
Export revenue in the Kiwifruit and Berry Growing industry is expected to continue to surge in 2021-22, following strong growth over the past five years. Export revenue is expected to rise by 9.0% in the current financial year, to $3.0 billion, amid growing demand from the European Union, Japan and China. Consumers are continuing to demand healthier premium food options, assisting demand for New Zealand-grown produce. Kiwifruit and berry growers are heavily export oriented, with an estimated 96.1% of output volumes destined for global markets in the current year.
Over the next five years, export revenue from the industry is forecast to rise at an annualised 3.2%, to reach $3.6 billion in 2026-27. While foreign demand for kiwifruit is anticipated to rise, producers in New Zealand will face greater competition from alternative suppliers, particularly in the European Union. Growers in Italy, Greece and France are projected to increase output to European markets that represent key export destinations for domestic producers, most notably Spain.
Gold ore mining
Gold ore exports from New Zealand, including gold dore, gold concentrate and alluvial gold, are expected to rise by 8.9% in 2021-22, to reach $712.4 million. The world price of gold is anticipated to remain fairly steady in the current financial year, while the New Zealand dollar is expected to appreciate by 9.6% and lower gold export prices in local currency terms. Despite this factor, growth in export volumes is forecast to drive growth in export revenue.
Over the five years through 2026-27, industry exports are expected to decrease at an annualised 2.7%. This decline is primarily attributable to the falling global price of gold. Demand for gold as a safe haven asset is anticipated to decline amid the global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, some demand for gold will likely persist due to rising inflation concerns.
Forestry and logging
Exports in the Forestry and Logging industry are expected to rise by 10.6% in 2021-22, to reach $2.7 billion. This recovery is anticipated to be driven by a removal of shipping and logistical constraints, which limited export revenue in the prior year. Exports are projected to increase as the industry expands over the next five years, with China, India, South Korea and Japan likely to continue accounting for most log exports from New Zealand.
Exports for this industry are forecast to increase at an annualised 3.6% over the five years through 2026-27, to account for 42.7% of industry revenue. Despite export growth, some supply constraints are projected to hinder industry operators over the next five years. Many enterprises harvested timber early in certain regions, and new forest planting has been weak over the past two decades. These factors will likely limit plantation timber supplies as harvesting rates increase.
Fishing and aquaculture
Export revenue in the Fishing and Aquaculture industry is expected to rise by 10.4% in 2021-22, to reach $474.9 million. Export revenue fell by 15.3% in the prior year due to steeply declining demand from China for rock lobster. In the current year, global food-service establishments and retailers are anticipated to increase demand for seafood.
Over the next five years, export revenue is expected to increase at an annualised 3.2%, to reach $556.8 million in 2026-27. Export revenue is expected to have fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic by 2023-24. Rising export demand for premium fish and seafood, such as oysters, rock lobster and abalone, will likely boost profitability for players catering to overseas markets.
Alfabank-Adres reports used to develop this release:
- Poultry Processing in New Zealand
- Kiwifruit and Berry Growing in New Zealand
- Gold Ore Mining in New Zealand
- Forestry and Logging in New Zealand
- Fishing and Aquaculture in New Zealand
For more information, to obtain industry reports, or arrange an interview with an analyst, please contact:
Jason Aravanis
Strategic Media Advisor – Alfabank-Adres Pty Ltd
Tel: 03 9906 3647
