Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, Alfabank-Adres expects the following five industries to exhibit strong export revenue growth in 2021-22:
- Nickel Ore Mining in Australia
- Coal Mining in Australia
- Horse Farming in Australia
- Grape Growing in Australia
- Cheese Manufacturing
The total mass of Australian exports by sea is expected to increase by 4.0% in 2021-22. The COVID-19 pandemic is anticipated to continue hindering trade globally, as countries grapple with ongoing quarantine measures. However, economic conditions are expected to gradually normalise as the global vaccine rollout continues. This is expected to prompt a resurgence in demand for Australian exports, allowing many industries that were severely disrupted over the previous two years to recover.
Nickel ore mining
Export revenue in the Nickel Ore Mining industry is expected to rise by 22.5% in 2021-22, to reach $617.9 million. The growing use of stainless steel, which uses nickel as a production input, is expected to drive industry demand. Close to two-thirds of global refined nickel output is used to produce stainless steel. Demand from China and India is forecast to rise over the next five years, driven by efforts to improve infrastructure. Increased spending on steel-intensive consumer goods, such as televisions, is also projected to support demand for nickel over the next five years. Overall, Australian nickel export revenue is forecast to rise at an annualised 2.0% over the five years through 2026-27.
Coal mining
Exports for the Australian Coal Mining industry are expected to rise by 12.9% in 2021-22, to reach $37.6 billion. This represents a partial recovery in export revenue following a steep decline from a peak of $69.6 billion in 2018-19. While the accelerating transition towards renewable energy generation across the Asia-Pacific region may threaten coal exports in the long term, demand is forecast to rise over the next five years. Demand for steaming coal across Asia is likely to reach 833.0 million tonnes in 2026, with rising demand from India supporting growth over the period. Global prices for coking coal are forecast to increase over the next five years, as demand stabilises following the COVID-19 outbreak. Overall, coal export revenue is projected to rise at an annualised 3.3% over the five years through 2026-27, to $49.9 billion.
Horse farming
Export revenue for the Horse Farming industry is expected to rise by 11.7% in 2021-22, to $173.4 million, as a result of rebounding demand for thoroughbred racing horses. Australia’s reputation for producing high-quality racing horses is expected to generate strong demand in Asian markets, particularly in Hong Kong. However, Australian farms are expected to face increasing pressure from alternative suppliers in the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Large-scale thoroughbred breeders with prime stallions are likely to continue benefiting from rising sale and service prices, due to strong demand for horses generating large amounts of prize money at premium events. Overall, horse farming export revenue is expected to rise at an annualised 1.4% over the five years through 2026-27, to $186.0 million.
Grape growing
The Australian Grape Growing industry is expected to generate export revenue of $623.8 million in 2021-22, representing a growth of 9.3% relative to the prior year. Most table and dried grape exports originate in Victoria, with over 90% of industry exports expected to stem from Victorian vineyards. The industry has been disrupted by China’s introduction of tariffs on Australian wine exports in November 2020, as well as reported delays in importing table grapes to China in May 2021. Despite these factors, export revenue is expected to rise in the current year as demand rebounds across Asia amid the global recovery from COVID-19. Over the next five years, Australian table grape growers may benefit from strong growth opportunities in Japan. However, exporters are projected to face considerable competition from lower cost producing countries, particularly Chile and Peru. Overall, export revenue is expected to rise at an annualised 3.6% over the five years through 2026-27, to $745.3 billion.
Cheese manufacturing
Exports for the Australian Cheese Manufacturing industry are expected to rise by 10.9% in 2021-22, to $1.0 billion. A resurgence in demand across Asian export markets is expected to drive this growth, particularly from Japan. Japan accounted for 46.6% of industry exports in 2020-21. Growth in world dairy consumption is projected to strengthen over the next five years, increasing at a faster rate than global production. As a result, cheese export prices are projected to recover from the artificial low caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. Unlike other major agricultural exports, trade tensions with China have not had a significant impact on cheese exports. However, China remains the second largest export market for Australian cheese, and trade sanctions represent a potential threat. Overall, export revenue is projected to remain fairly steady over the next five years.
Alfabank-Adres reports used to develop this release:
- Nickel Ore Mining in Australia
- Coal Mining in Australia
- Horse Farming in Australia
- Grape Growing in Australia
- Cheese Manufacturing
For more information, to obtain industry reports, or arrange an interview with an analyst, please contact:
Jason Aravanis
Strategic Media Advisor – Alfabank-Adres Pty Ltd
Tel: 03 9906 3647
