UK Industry Fast Facts

Alfabank-Adres presents a collection of fast facts for the different sectors of the UK economy.

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

• The AHDB reported that consumer trust in farming reached a six-year high in 2024, driven by rising consumer interest in farming and food production and origin.
• According to data from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), harvests in England are down by between 75% and 33%, depending on the region, marking the second worst harvest on record. Fears about next years’ harvest are also swelling.
• According to the Agricultural Engineers Association (AEA), tractor registrations in September 2024 were the lowest since 2015 due to widespread uncertainty surrounding farming and the wettest 18-month period since 1836.
• The National Farmers’ Union stated that the plan to make farming net zero by 2040 is unlikely to be achieved due to a lack of investment in climate-friendly farming measures by the previous government. Farming is currently responsible for around 12% of the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions.
• Shrinking profit margins in agriculture has encouraged farmers to look for alternative ways to generate income. A farmer in Keynsham, Bristol, has turned his dairy and poultry farm into a storage business and now leases his former dairy land to a cafe and farm shop to add to his income.
• A report commissioned by the RSPB, National Trust and The Wildlife Trusts discovered that the current investment in agriculture falls short of the amount needed to tackle the climate crisis. An annual investment of £5.9 billion would support the long-term viability of UK farming.
• The Welsh government postponed its rollout of a new subsidy scheme for farmers that would require farmers to dedicate 10% of their eligible land to tree cover and another 10% to natural habitat until 2026.
• The National Farmers’ Union has claimed that farmers can prevent river pollution is they receive the necessary funding in the next farming budget. According to Rivers Trust, only 14% of UK rivers are in good ecological health.
  The government has launched a £1.6 million fund to help farmers manage water resources more efficiently and protect against the impact of drought. Projects could include multi-farm reservoirs, treated waste-water recycling systems, water trading and sharing schemes.

Mining

• The Office for National Statistics states that output in the mining and quarrying sector fell by 4% in August 2024. This was mainly due to a 4.2% drop in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas. Mining and quarrying fell 1.7% in the three months to August 2024 compared with the prior quarter.

• Escalating tensions in the Middle East have threatened to hike oil prices above $80 per barrel. However, weak economic data from China is putting downward pressure on prices, with prices around the $78 per barrel mark in mid-October 2024.

• World Bank Commodities Price Data released in October 2024 shows that the monthly average prices for coal and crude oil fell in September 2024. Metals and minerals monthly average prices have been mixed, with aluminium, copper, lead and zinc prices rising while iron ore, nickel and tin prices falling over the month. At the same time, heightened economic uncertainty has raised the prices of precious metals (gold, platinum and silver).

• Leading oil and gas company TotalEnergies has warned that it will reduce UK investment and restructure its North Sea operations if the UK government goes ahead with hiking the windfall tax (from 75% to 78%).

• The Financial Times reports that the imposition of the windfall tax in 2022 has led to banks reducing the amount of loans to oil and gas producers. No wells have been drilled in the UK’s part of the North Sea in 2024.

• According to energy consultants Wood Mackenzie, Labour’s tax proposals on oil and gas companies will result in output from the North Sea halving by 2030.

• UK’s Sizewell C nuclear project has been hit by further delays amid dragging talks on investment. This has prompted the government to set up a £5.5 billion subsidy scheme to support the construction of the power station.

• According to BDO’s UK Oil and Gas Annual Report 2024, the UK oil and gas industry contributed US$13.2 billion to the UK economy in 2023. While oil production and consumption are strong, the industry is investing in AI, carbon capture and renewable energy. However, according to the report, the majority of the largest UK-based oil and gas companies recorded a drop in revenue.

Manufacturing

• According to S&P Global/CIPS PMI, the UK’s manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in October 2024. While it remained above the neutral 50 mark, uncertainty grew surrounding the Autumn Budget and new orders slipped back into contraction.
• According to the ONS, manufacturing output increased by 1.1% in August 2024, driven by the manufacture of transport equipment (2.1%) and the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (2.3%).
• The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders recorded an 20.6% fall in car manufacturing in September 2024 compared to the same month in 2023. Factories are lowering output as they prepare for the shift to electric models.
• According to Make UK, manufacturers have greater confidence in the UK as a base of operations than they were a year ago. Almost half of respondents to their survey expect conditions to improve in 2024. The optimism has been fuelled by relative political stability and pro-business policies like the full expensing tax break on investments, according to the Financial Times.
• Between 2025 and 2030, the government will provide £4.5 billion in funding for British manufacturing to boost investment across eight sectors, with over £2 billion earmarked for the automotive industry and just under £1 billion for aerospace.
• The International Federation of Robotics found that the UK lags behind the world average for the number of robots per employee, with financial, ease of use, functionality and regulatory concerns all cited as reasons for the slow adoption.
• The UK government has postponed the UKCA safety mark for manufactured goods indefinitely, a move welcomed by businesses, as it will reduce red tape and simplify the post-Brexit business landscape.

Utilities

• TotalEnergies has warned that it will reign in its investment in the UK due to the proposed windfall tax. This tax was introduced in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but Labour will extend it to 2030.
• According to the Financial Times, water prices for businesses will rise by an average of 27% (before inflation) over the five years through 2029-30, leading to complaints. Ofwat, the water regulator is allowing prices to rise so water companies can upgrade infrastructure.
• The government has agreed to buy the National Grid’s electricity system operator for £630 million as part of its plan to adopt a more strategic approach to achieving a net zero energy system by 2030.
• The government awarded nine offshore wind farm contracts in September 2024. This is a stark change from last year's auction, where no companies bid. The new offshore wind firms will include Europe’s largest and second-largest wind farms, both located off the Yorkshire coast.
• Cornwall Insight forecast that domestic energy prices will rise in the run up to winter, with an expected increase of 9% in October 2024.
• Thames Water, in over £18 billion of debt, has breached its licence conditions after two credit rating agencies cut its rating to junk. Ofwat will appoint an independent monitor to report on Thames Water and force it to construct a new business plan and raise new equity.
• Thames Water may increase bills by £627 yearly to fund investment of up to £3 billion to fix its leaky network. The company is already charging £26 a year per household to fund a new 25km sewage tunnel under the Thames.
• The water consumer watchdog has warned that companies’ plans to increase bills by up to 70% by 2030 are unaffordable for most households in England and Wales. It would take some payments to more than £800 a year.
• According to the National Grid, about 600 projects with a combined capacity of 176GW are in the queue in England and Wales, against 64GW of connected capacity. Some battery, wind and solar projects are being told they have to wait until 2036 for a connection.

Construction

• Data from the Department for Business and Trade showed that material price inflation fell by 1.1% in August 2024 compared to the same month in 2023. Despite this, the price of flexible pipes and fittings grew by 17.4%.
• According to the Office for National Statistics, construction output rose by 0.4% in August 2024. The main driver of the increase in output was new work (1.6%).
• The S&P Global/CIPS UK PMI registered 57.2 in September 2024, robust growth in new orders and a more supportive economic outlook were key drivers.
• According to the Financial Times, the number of construction workers has fallen by 14% between 2019 and 2024, driven by Brexit and high inflation.
• The government awarded 2,021 construction contracts in Q1 2024, worth £6.6 billion, which is a 14% increase in value compared to Q4 2023. The highest value contract was given to Network Rail Infrastructure.
• Developers in England must deliver a 10% Biodiversity Net Gain when building new housing, industrial or commercial developments. The UK is the first country in the world to make this a legal requirement.
• Two-thirds of the £4.2 billion UK housebuilding fund is unspent despite a shortage of housing in the country, more than six years since its launch, according to the Financial Times. Work had only begun on less than one in 10 of the promised homes.
• An additional 16,000 extra workers will be needed in the UK’s offshore wind industry by 2030, according to a new labour forecasting tool developed by the Engineering Construction Industry Training Board and Whole Life Consultants. A decline in oil and gas production (the largest employer of engineering construction contractors) could lead to a 30% reduction in the workforce between 2023 and 2035.

Wholesale Trade

• According to the Office for National Statistics, output in the wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sector fell by 0.3% in August 2024. This decline was driven by a 1.6% drop in wholesale trade, except for motor vehicles and motorcycles and a 1.2% fall in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles.
• DBC Group has become a member of the Sugro UK group, which consists of over 90 independent wholesalers.
• Love British Food has called on wholesalers to promote domestic produce by launching ‘Buy British’ categories in a bid to boost demand.
• New figures show that trade with the EU has suffered severely due to Brexit, with Aston University estimating that annual exports and imports are 17% and 23%, respectively, below where they would have been if Brexit didn’t materialise.
• The government has again delayed the final stage of the post-Brexit border rollout for goods entering the UK from the EU by three months to the end of January 2025. Trade representatives have said this move hits business confidence, as reported by the Financial Times.

Retail Trade

• Shop prices fell for the third consecutive month in October 2024. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) data shows shop price deflation reached at 0.8% in October 2024, down from deflation of 0.6% in September 2024. This is below the 3-month average rate of -0.6%. Shop price annual growth was at its lowest rate since August 2021.
• Non-food remained in deflation at -2.1% in October 2024 thanks to discounting activity across electricals like mobile phones and hardware and home improvement stores as retailers capitalised on the recent pick-up in the housing market. In contrast to the wider non-food category, clothing and fashion prices inched upwards as retailers pared back on the discounting.
• Food inflation reached 1.9% in October, down from 2.3% in the previous moth though it has reached its lowest level since November 2021, particularly for meat, fish and tea as well as sweet treats. Fresh food price decelerated 1% like ambient food increased decelerated at 3.1%.
• In October 2024, UK Ministers introduced the Employment Rights Bill, broadening workers’ rights and helping to ensure some stability. Key proposals include introducing rights from Day 1, including paternity leave, protection from unfair dismissal, establish bereavement leave and addressing the potentially exploitative nature of zero-hour contracts.
• Online fast fashion retailer, ASOS, has offloaded Topshop to Bestseller as it looks to refinance operations. The deal will grant the online retailer certain design and distribution rights for the Topshop and Topman brands in return for a royalty fee enabling it to continue selling the brands.

Transportation & Warehousing

• Overcrowding at Euston station, particularly when trains are cancelled, is putting people in danger, according to London TravelWatch, an independent watchdog. The station was designed for approximately 20 million passengers a year but currently serves upward of 40 million.
• The UK’s busiest station, Liverpool Street, will close for eight days during the 2024 festive period as Network Rail aims to provide better, more reliable services during the quieter work week.
• Sunak’s decision to downgrade HS2 has led to over £2 billion in costs, including a £1.1 billion write off during phase two (Birmingham to Manchester link) until it was scrapped in 2023. HS2 also disclosed a £1 billion accounting fee related to the downgraded line.
• Budget airline easyJet enjoyed an 8% in passenger numbers over the three months through June 2024, driving revenue growth of 11%. The average fare over the quarter was £73, roughly the same as 2023.
• Compensation payouts to rail passengers for delays hit over £100 million over the year through April 2023, up by 155% since 2021-22. According to data from the Office of Rail and Road, the financial hit is likely to be much higher in 2023-24.
• The Guardian has reported that approximately 46,000 aircraft has logged problems with GPS over the Baltic Sea since August 2023, with Russian GPS jamming the likely cause.
• Transport for London has warned that it’s facing a £250 million shortfall in funding after securing just half of the £500 million grant it had requested to keep the network running in 2024-25. The funding will be used for new trains on the Tube’s Piccadilly Line, which are being constructed in East Yorkshire.

Accommodation & Food Services

• The ONS states that output in the food and beverage service activities fell by 0.02 percentage points in August 2024, but was up 0.03 percentage points in the three months to August 2024.
• According to the GfK consumer confidence index, consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level since December 2023 due to fears and uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget.
• From 1 October 2024, the Employment (Allocation of Tips) Act and the statutory Code of Practice on fair and transparent distribution of tips came into force. These changes will require employers to pass all tips, gratuities and service charges on to workers, without deductions. Restaurants, pubs, cafes, hotels and bars will all be affected by the new tipping laws. This could put further pressure on businesses hit by labour shortages and higher costs.
• A survey commissioned by catering group Compass has found that only 24% of UK workers want alcohol at work-related social events, highlighting the drop in alcohol consumption by younger generations. More and more employees are preferring game-based events.
• Following a strong backlash from the hospitality industry, the government is moving to block the ban on outdoor smoking at hospitality venues like nightclubs, pubs and bars.
• The acquisition of part of TGI Fridays by PE firm Calveton and Bread Capital has saved 51 sites. Despite this, TGI Fridays has closed 35 restaurants and cut 1,000 jobs.
• US fast food chain Velvet Taco plans to open its first restaurant in the UK, to be located in London, in 2025. This follows on from other US fast food chains entering the market and expanding their presence. For example, Chick-fil-A plans to open a number of restaurants across the UK, with the first branch to open in the first quarter of next year.
• As reported by the Financial Times, food businesses and investors are calling on the government to tackle diet-related health issues by introducing tighter regulatory scrutiny, including mandatory reporting on the share of revenue from sales of products high in fat, salt and sugar. Businesses claim that health issues related to unhealthy diets are hitting productivity.
• The Caterers reports that the Best Western hotel chain is set to triple its UK premium and luxury hotel footprint. 

Information

• According to the Office for National Statistics, output in the information and communication sector hiked by 0.8% in July 2024. The sub-sector grew by 0.9% in the three months to August 2024, the second-largest positive contributor to the services sector.
• UK’s national broadcaster, BBC, is planning to cut 155 jobs from its news operations as part of its £700 million cost-cutting strategy. It hopes the move will save £24 million, as reported by the Financial Times.
• From 1 October 2024, Ofcom has begun enforcing new roaming rules that require mobile network operators to provide better protection from potential charges to consumers who travel abroad.
• Ofcom has launched an investigation into rural internet service provider Gigaclear over a possible failure to provide caller location information to emergency services, as reported by ISPreview.
• Virgin Media O2 has sold a £186 million (about 8%) stake in its mobile masts business, Cornerstone, to infrastructure investment firm Equitix. The company retains 25% holding in Cornerstone, which is the UK’s largest mobile towers business.
• Following demands from the Competition and Markets Authority to make changes to the £16.5 billion merger between Vodafone and Three UK, amid fears of higher bills for consumers, the companies have agreed to limit price increases on some phone tariffs. The competition watchdog will give its final decision on whether the merger can proceed by 7 December 2024.
• According to research from Oxford University, teenagers’ social media use is strongly correlated to higher anxiety and depression. Data shows that the number of children treated by NHS mental health services has surged.

Finance & Insurance

• The Financial Conduct Authority encourages the use of AI to bring down premiums. However, it has warned that in areas like health coverage, personalisation may lower costs for some consumers, but also increase costs or push out potential consumers who are unhealthier or don’t have access to technology.
• A report by credit scoring company FICO shows credit card spending dropped by 2.7% month-on-month in July 2024, though the effect of inflation also continues to be evident, with average balances 5.3% higher than in 2023. The number of customers missing payments across one, two and three months increased in July 2024.
• Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) platforms may be subject to greater scrutiny and regulation. Labour has previously suggested that BNPL platforms should implement greater safety features, including affordability checks and monitoring of consumer credit history.
• The latest statistics from the Bank of England indicate that new mortgage approvals for house purchases reached the highest level in two years in August 2024 at 64,900. Similarly, approvals for remortgaging with a different lender increased from 25,200 to 27,200 in August 2024, after five consecutive month-on-month decreases. Despite the drop in the base rate, the average interest rate paid on newly drawn mortgages was 4.84% in August 2024, 0.3% percentage points higher than in July 2024.
• Insurer, Zurich, and broker, Marsh McLennan, say in a new report that cyber threats are “outpacing the ability of traditional insurance and risk management approaches to fully mitigate them”. Both giants stress there are limits on how much insurers can absorb and propose a series of potential solutions, including creating public-private partnerships to share losses from current events like systemic events like cyber-attacks and greater government involvement.
• UK Finance data shows that gross lending to SMEs was broadly stable at around £4 billion in the second quarter of 2024. This is very similar to gross lending in the first quarter 2024, but again higher than a year previously when it was £3.6 billion. Many SMEs are prioritising repaying COVID-19 loans, dampening appetite for new finance. 

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

• According to major bank Nationwide, annual house price growth increased by 3.2% in September 2024 compared with September 2023. This is the fastest rate since November 2022. Prices hiked 0.7% month on month, with the average house price at £266,094. Prices remain around 2% below the all-time high reached in the summer of 2022.
• Data from Zoopla shows that UK house sales in September 2024 increased at the sharpest rate since the spring of 2021, thanks to lower mortgage rates.
• According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, house demand, sales and new listings all expanded in September 2024. UK house prices grew for the first time since October 2022 as the property market benefits from anticipations of more interest rate cuts.
• According to data from the ONS, average rent in London is consuming between one and two-thirds of tenants’ incomes, far higher than other regions.
• Property site Zoopla states that the total value of homes in the sales pipeline is set to surge by 30% to £113 billion in 2024.
• According to Savills, the UK is showing a resurgence in the office market, accounting for 29% of total European office deals in the first half of 2024. It is performing better than its European counterparts like France and Germany.
• Canadian asset manager Brookfield has put London’s Citypoint tower up for sale, seeking £500 million for the building. It is the largest office building placed on the market in the capital this year.
• BNP Paribas Real Estate estimates that the UK real estate market has the potential to be worth an additional £470 billion by 2029 if the UK can address the current supply shortfalls.
• Border to Coast Pensions Partnership, one of the UK’s largest pension pools, has launched a £1.2 billion UK real estate fund, with the aim to expand the fund to over £3 billion in the next five years.

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

• The Office for National Statistics reports that the professional, scientific and technical activities sector grew by 1.6% in August 2024. Growth was mainly driven by increases of 4.3% in the accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy industry, 1.7% in legal activities and 2.8% in scientific research and development. Professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in the three months to August 2024, growing by 0.8%.
• The Financial Reporting Council (FRC) has released the latest Audit Quality Review report for 2024. Of the audits inspected, 74% were categorised as good or requiring limited improvements. Audit quality for the FTSE 350 has also improved, up from 81% to 87% year on year. However, there is a widened gap between the largest four firms and the other Tier 1 firms, BDO and Forvis Mazars. The audit results for BDO have declined significantly from 69% to 38% year on year, while Forvis Mazars’ results also declined from 56% to 44%.
• PwC reported a slowdown in sales while higher costs and legal claims have weighed on profit in the 12 months through June 2024. As a result of the slowdown in sales, UK partners’ pay dropped over the year.
• Big Four firm EY has recorded a sharp slowdown in sales growth, resulting in a 5% drop in payouts for its UK partners. Revenue decline has been driven by a slowdown in its consulting and strategy and transactions business units amid a challenging economic climate.
• PwC is restructuring its UK operations with plans to launch a standalone tech and AI unit, affecting 2,700 employees. This unit will focus on innovation, AI engineering, cloud and data, as reported by the Financial Times. It will also make changes to parts of its consulting, risk, deals and tax segments.
• Analysis by the Financial Times has found that Home Office spending on consultants reached nearly £230 million in the year ending June 2024, compared with just £23.4 million five years earlier.
• The Royal Institute of British Architects has said that the Elizabeth Line has won the 2024 Stirling Prize for the country’s best new building project. It was delivered by a consortium of Maynard, Equation and AtkinsRéalis, as reported by the Financial Times.
• According to the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising, marketing budgets failed to expand in the third quarter of 2024, for the first time since the pandemic. This was due to heightened uncertainty among businesses in anticipation of the Autumn Budget.

Education

• Universities are in financial trouble and are having to take drastic actions to avoid going bust including culling courses and issuing voluntary severance schemes. The BBC says Queen’s University Belfast is on track to have a deficit of more than £11 million in the 2024-2025 academic year, with the University of York at £34 million and the University of Sheffield at £50 million.
• The percentage of disadvantage children in England pursuing further education has fallen for the first time on record. According to the Department for Education, 29% of students eligible for free school meals at 15 had progressed to university by the age of 19 in 2022-23, compared with 29.2% the previous year.
• Once independent schools register for VAT, they will be eligible to claim back tax paid on capital projects like buildings and land acquisition products completed over the past 10 years. Tensions are rising as elite private schools will attain a net benefit, further widening the gap between large institutions and smaller private schools.
• It’s no surprise as fees rise the UK has seen a drop in international students applying for visas. Data from the Home Office shows 15 fewer applications made between July and September 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Meanwhile, the number of visa applications for family members of students dropped by 89% after a rule change introduced by the previous government came into effect in January 2024.

Healthcare & Social Assistance

• The Chancellor has confirmed that the NHS will receive the funding needed to deliver an extra 40,000 elective appointments per week to reduce waiting times in the NHS. This includes an additional £1.8 billion the government has invested in elective activity this year since the July Statement. This will be supported by a significant investment uplift including surgical hubs and scanners, and funding for new radiotherapy machines to improve cancer treatment.
• From 1 January 2025, all medicines sold in the UK will need to be labelled as ‘UK Only’. The British Generic Manufacturers Association (BGMA) warns not all suppliers will have their labelling ready – potentially leading to shortage due to bureaucracy.
• Sir Keir Starmer introduced the idea of slimming jabs to tackle the UK’s issue with worklessness with 16.5 million adults in the UK classified as obese. CEO of NHS England, Amanda Pritchard, warns slimming clinics will need reform to cope with government plans for a mass rollout.
• In 2022-23, net expenditure on adult social care in England was £24.6 billion in real terms, having risen by around 9% since 2019-20. Although spending has increased, it hasn’t kept pace with an ageing population, where the number of people aged 65 and over has jumped from 9.2 million to over 11 million and cost pressures.
• Digitisation is needed across social care with research by health-tech company Lilli, suggesting the NHS could save more than £1.2 billion through non-intrusive lifestyle monitoring.

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

• UK gambling firms fear higher taxes as Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, comes under pressure to plug the £22 billion hole in the UK’s finances. There are two separate proposals — proposals from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) would increase taxes by £3 billion, while the Social Market Foundations (SMF) plan would mean an additional £900 million from online gambling.
• Discovery+ becomes the UK’s fastest-growing paid streaming service after its parent — Warner Bros Discovery — secured a near £1 billion deal for control of the Olympics rights from the BBC. For Paris 2024, the BBC broadcast just 250 hours of live TV and showed a maximum of two live events simultaneously.
• Labour has historically advocated for stricter regulations, particularly tightening controls on advertisements and campaigning for greater protection for problem gamblers. Labour’s manifesto outlines several commitments to gambling reform, including regulation and reducing gambling-related harm.
• Lindsy Nandy, Culture Secretary, has pledged to boost funding for grassroots sports, including football facilities for girls and boys alongside ongoing cash upgrades to local sports centres. Meanwhile, pub chain Greene King hit its £1 million milestone for grassroots sports with Euros fundraising.
• Despite tighter controls, gambling is on the up thanks to the growth of online slots and real event betting. According to the UK Gambling Commission, the gross gambling yield (GGY) for the first quarter of 2024 alone reached an impressive £1.46 billion, a steep 2% rise compared to the previous year. While online gambling is flourishing, the traditional retail betting sector is facing challenges as punters prefer the convenience of betting from home.

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