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Electricity Retailing in New Zealand - Market Research Report (2013-2028)

Andrew Ledovskikh Andrew Ledovskikh Melbourne, Australia Last Updated: October 2023 ANZSIC D2640NZ

Revenue

$9.0bn

2023-24

$9.0bn

Past 5-Year Growth

Profit

$XXX.Xm

Employees

3,217

Businesses

40

Wages

$XXX.Xm

Electricity Retailing in New Zealand industry analysis

Electricity retailers have performed reasonably well over the past five years despite flat demand and pricing at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to declines in revenue in real terms in 2019-20 and 2020-21. Over the two years through 2023-24, industry revenue is expected to rebound strongly, with pricing and demand growing at some of the fastest rates witnessed in the past decade. Retail prices, which remained stagnant even as wholesale electricity prices soared in 2019-20 and 2020-21, have started to make up lost ground, rising even as wholesale prices corrected in 2022-23. Overall, industry revenue is expected to rise at an annualised 1.8% over the five years through 2023-24, to $9.0 billion. This includes an anticipated increase of 9.7% in 2023-24, in line with rising wholesale prices and growing net energy consumption.

Significant regulatory changes in the electricity sector have changed the industry's structure over the past 15 years. Greater oversight by regulatory bodies and moves to encourage competition through controls against monopolistic pricing have drawn several new enterprises to the industry over the past five years. While the four largest retailers are expected to control approximately two-thirds of industry revenue in the current year, this proportion has significantly declined from a market share of approximately 99% in 2004-05. Medium and small enterprises have expanded at a faster rate than the larger players over the past five years. Changing conditions have prompted major incumbents to change strategies, with Mercury NZ Limited acquiring former major player TrustPower's retail business in May 2022.

Persistently strong wholesale prices and steady growth in demand are expected to drive moderate growth in industry revenue over the next five years. The potential closure of the Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter will also pose a threat to industry revenue, as it would cause a flood of supply to the electricity market that would likely severely diminish electricity prices. The plant was scheduled to close in 2024, but there are ongoing talks to keep it open until 2039. Industry revenue is forecast to rise at an annualised 3.9% over the five years through 2028-29, to $11.0 billion.

Trends and Insights

  • Regulatory changes in the industry have driven increased competition. Smaller retailers entering the industry have constrained retail electricity prices and limited industry revenue growth.
  • Despite volatile rainfall, which has weighed on generation volumes, the industry is increasingly reliant on hydro-electricity. The closure of coal and gas generators has forced electricity generators to turn to hydro-electricity as renewable sources ramp up.
  • Most national firms are based in Auckland and Wellington, providing proximity to skilled workforces and their major commercial clients. There is little need for retailers to be positioned near consumers across New Zealand as most purchases are done online.
  • In-house solar panels are becoming an increasingly attractive substitute for industry services. Households and companies are recognising the environmental – and often long-term financial – benefits of installing their own solar panel arrays.

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Industry Statistics and Trends

Market size and recent performance (2013-2028)

Industry revenue has grown at a CAGR of 2.1 % over the past five years, to reach an estimated $9.0bn in 2023.

Trends and Insights

The Central Government (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) has made efforts to constrain price growth

  • Despite the significant regulatory framework changes implemented over the past two decades, residential electricity prices have consistently grown at a faster rate than inflation, prompting the Electricity Price Review (EPR).
  • Additional trends and insights available with purchase
Electricity Retailing in New Zealand
Revenue (2013-2028)
Alfabank-Adres Logo Source: Alfabank-Adres

Industry outlook (2024-2029)

Market size is projected to grow over the next five years.

Trends and Insights

Regulatory reforms are expected to encourage more entrants into the industry

  • Regulatory reforms that have occurred over the past decade are forecast to continue affecting the industry over the next five years. In particular, the competition reforms enacted in 2010-11 will likely continue encouraging new firms to enter the industry.

Biggest companies in the Electricity Retailing in New Zealand

Company
Market Share (%)
2024
Revenue ($m)
2024
Genesis Energy
1,445.0
Mercury NZ
1,421.7
Contact Energy
1,265.0

To view the market share and analysis for all 5 top companies in this industry, view purchase options.

Products & Services Segmentation

Electricity Retailing in New Zealand
Products & Services
Alfabank-Adres Logo Source: Alfabank-Adres

Industry revenue is measured across several distinct product and services lines, including Hydro-electricity, Fossil fuel electricity and Geothermal electricity. Hydro-electricity is the largest segment of the Electricity Retailing in New Zealand.

Trends and Insights

Decline in fossil fuel electricity generation has increased reliance on hydro-electricity

  • Electricity from hydro-electric generation is the largest source of electricity in New Zealand, although it varies slightly on a yearly basis depending on annual rainfall levels.
  • More insights available in the full report

Table of Contents

About this industry

Industry definition

Industry operators purchase electricity on the wholesale electricity spot market and onsell it to consumers and businesses.

What's included in this industry?

Electricity retailingElectricity market operation

Companies

Genesis EnergyMercury NZContact Energy

Purchase this report to view all 5 major companies in this industry.

Related Terms

INSTALLATION CONTROL POINTS (ICP)GENTAILEREBITDAF

Industry Code

ANZSIC 2006

ANZSIC 2640 - Electricity Retailing in New Zealand

Performance

Get an indication of the industry's health through historical, current and forward-looking trends in the performance indicators that make or break businesses.

Analyst insights

Regulatory changes in the industry have driven increased competition. Smaller retailers entering the industry have constrained retail electricity prices and limited industry ...

In this chapter (4)

  • Current Performance
  • Outlook
  • Volatility
  • Life Cycle

Key metrics

  • Annual Revenue, Recent Growth, Forecast, Revenue Volatility
  • Number of Employees, Recent Growth, Forecast, Employees per Business, Revenue per Employee
  • Number of Businesses, Recent Growth, Forecast, Employees per Business, Revenue per Business
  • Total Profit, Profit Margin, Profit per Business

Charts

  • Revenue, including historical (2013-2022) and forecast (2023-2028)
  • Employees, including historical (2013-2022) and forecast (2023-2028)
  • Businesses, including historical (2013-2022) and forecast (2023-2028)
  • Profit, including historical (2013-2023)
  • Industry Volatility vs. Revenue Growth
  • Industry Life Cycle

Detailed analysis

  • Trends in supply, demand and current events that are driving current industry performance
  • Expected trends, economic factors and ongoing events that drive the industry's outlook
  • Key success factors for businesses to overcome volatility
  • How contribution to GDP, industry saturation, innovation, consolidation, and technology and systems influence the industry's life cycle phase.

Products and Markets

Learn about an industry's products and services, markets and trends in international trade.

Analyst insight

Despite volatile rainfall, which has weighed on generation volumes, the industry is increasingly reliant on hydro-electricity. The closure of coal and gas generators has forc...

In this chapter

  • Products & Services
  • Major Markets

Key metrics

  • Largest market segment and value in 2023
  • Product innovation level

Charts

  • Products & services segmentation in 2023
  • Major market segmentation in 2023

Detailed analysis

  • Trends impacting the recent performance of the industry's various segments
  • Innovations in the industry's product or service offering, specialization or delivery method
  • Key factors that successful businesses consider in their offerings
  • Buying segments and key trends influencing demand for industry products and services

Geographic Breakdown

Discover where business activity is most concentrated in an industry and the factors driving these trends to find opportunities and conduct regional benchmarking.

Analyst insights

Most national firms are based in Auckland and Wellington, providing proximity to skilled workforces and their major commercial clients. There is little need for retailers to ...

In this chapter (1)

  • Business Locations

Charts

  • Share of revenue, establishment, wages and employment in each region
  • Share of population compared to establishments in each region in 2023

Tables

  • Number and share of establishments in each region in 2023
  • Number and share of revenue each region accounts for in 2023
  • Number and share of wages each region accounts for in 2023
  • Number and share of employees in each region in 2023

Detailed analysis

  • Geographic spread of the industry across Asia Pacific, and trends associated with changes in the business landscape
  • Key success factors for businesses to use location to their advantage

Competitive Forces

Get data and insights on what's driving competition in an industry and the challenges industry operators and new entrants may face, with analysis built around Porter's Five Forces framework.

Analyst insights

In-house solar panels are becoming an increasingly attractive substitute for industry services. Households and companies are recognising the environmental – and often long-te...

In this chapter (4)

  • Concentration
  • Barriers to Entry
  • Substitutes
  • Buyer & Supplier Analysis

Key metrics

  • Industry concentration level
  • Industry competition level and trend
  • Barriers to entry level and trend
  • Substitutes level and trend
  • Buyer power level and trend
  • Supplier power level and trend

Charts

  • Market share concentration among the top 4 suppliers from 2018-2023
  • Supply chain including upstream supplying industries and downstream buying industries, flow chart

Detailed analysis

  • Factors impacting the industry’s level of concentration, such as business distribution, new entrants, or merger and acquisition activity.
  • Key success factors for businesses to manage the competitive environment of the industry.
  • Challenges that potential industry entrants face such as legal, start-up costs, differentiation, labor/capital intensity and capital expenses.
  • Key success factors for potential entrants to overcome barriers to entry.
  • Competitive threats from potential substitutes for the industry’s own products and services.
  • Key success factors for how successful businesses can compete with substitutes.
  • Advantages that buyers have to keep favorable purchasing conditions.
  • Advantages that suppliers have to maintain favorable selling conditions.
  • Key success factors for how businesses can navigate buyer and supplier power.

Companies

Learn about the performance of the top companies in the industry.

Analyst insights

The largest companies have increasingly lost market share to smaller new entrants. A raft of new entrants over the past decade have continually chipped away at the dominance ...

In this chapter

  • Market Share Concentration
  • Companies
  • Company Spotlights

Charts

  • Industry market share by company in 2019 through 2023
  • Major companies in the industry, including market share, revenue, profit and profit margin in 2023
  • Overview of Genesis Energy's performance by revenue, market share and profit margin from 2017 through 2023
  • Overview of Mercury NZ's performance by revenue, market share and profit margin from 2017 through 2023
  • Overview of Contact Energy's performance by revenue, market share and profit margin from 2017 through 2023
  • Overview of revenue, market share and profit margin trend for 2 additional companies

Detailed analysis

  • Description and key data for Genesis Energy, and factors influencing its performance in the industry
  • Description and key data for Mercury NZ, and factors influencing its performance in the industry
  • Description and key data for Contact Energy, and factors influencing its performance in the industry
  • Description, key data and performance trends for 2 additional companies

External Environment

Understand the demographic, economic and regulatory factors that shape how businesses in an industry perform.   

Analyst insights

Small-scale solar systems are a major disruptor to demand for electricity provided by the industry. Households and businesses are increasingly installing these systems to red...

In this chapter

  • External Drivers
  • Regulation & Policy
  • Assistance

Key metrics

  • Regulation & policy level and trend
  • Assistance level and trend

Charts

  • Regulation & Policy historical data and forecast (2013-2028) 
  • Assistance historical data and forecast (2013-2028) 

Detailed analysis

  • Demographic and macroeconomic factors influencing the industry, including Regulation & Policy and Assistance
  • Major types of regulations, regulatory bodies, industry standards or specific regulations impacting requirements for industry operators
  • Key governmental and non-governmental groups or policies that may provide some relief for industry operators.

Financial Benchmarks

View average costs for industry operators and compare financial data against an industry's financial benchmarks over time. 

Analyst insights

Retailers have faced rising purchase costs as wholesale prices have soared. Firms have faced periods of low rainfall and gas supply problems, which have driven up wholesale e...

In this chapter

  • Cost Structure
  • Financial Ratios
  • Key Ratios

Key metrics

  • Profit margin, and how it compares to the sector-wide margin
  • Average wages, and how it compares to the sector-wide average wage
  • Largest cost component as a percentage of revenue
  • Industry average ratios for days' receivables, industry coverage and debt-to-net-worth ratio

Charts

  • Average industry operating costs as a share of revenue, including purchases, wages, depreciation, utilities, rent, other costs and profit in 2023
  • Average sector operating costs as a share of revenue, including purchases, wages, depreciation, utilities, rent, other costs and profit in 2023
  • Investment vs. share of economy

Data tables

  • Cash Flow & Debt Service Ratios (2013-2028)
  • Revenue per Employee (2013-2028)
  • Revenue per Enterprise (2013-2028)
  • Employees per Establishment (2013-2028)
  • Employees per Enterprise (2013-2028)
  • Average Wage (2013-2028)
  • Wages/Revenue (2013-2028)
  • Establishments per Enterprise (2013-2028)
  • IVA/Revenue (2013-2028)
  • Imports/Demand (2013-2028)
  • Exports/Revenue (2013-2028)

Detailed analysis

  • Trends in the cost component for industry operators and their impact on industry costs and profitability 

Key Statistics

Industry Data

Data Tables

Including values and annual change:

  • Revenue (2013-2028)
  • IVA (2013-2028)
  • Establishments (2013-2028)
  • Enterprises (2013-2028)
  • Employment (2013-2028)
  • Exports (2013-2028)
  • Imports (2013-2028)
  • Wages (2013-2028)

Top Questions Answered

Unlock comprehensive answers and precise data upon purchase. View purchase options.

What is the market size of the Electricity Retailing industry in New Zealand in 2024?

The market size of the Electricity Retailing industry in New Zealand is $9.0bn in 2024.

How many businesses are there in the Electricity Retailing in New Zealand industry in 2023?

There are 40 businesses in the Electricity Retailing industry in New Zealand, which has grown at a CAGR of 1.6 % between 2018 and 2023.

Has the Electricity Retailing industry in New Zealand grown or declined over the past 5 years?

The market size of the Electricity Retailing industry in New Zealand has been growing at a CAGR of 2.1 % between 2018 and 2023.

What is the forecast growth of the Electricity Retailing industry in New Zealand over the next 5 years?

Over the next five years, the Electricity Retailing industry in New Zealand is expected to grow.

What are the biggest companies in the Electricity Retailing market in New Zealand?

The biggest companies operating in the Electricity Retailing market in New Zealand are Genesis Energy, Mercury NZ and Contact Energy

What does the Electricity Retailing in New Zealand include?

Electricity retailing and Electricity market operation are part of the Electricity Retailing industry.

Which companies have the highest market share in the Electricity Retailing in New Zealand?

The company holding the most market share in New Zealand is Genesis Energy.

How competitive is the Electricity Retailing industry in New Zealand?

The level of competition is moderate and increasing in the Electricity Retailing industry in New Zealand.

Related Industries

Widen your competitive advantage with related industries

Competitors

  • Gas Supply in New Zealand

Complementors

  • Water Supply in New Zealand
  • Hydro-Electricity Generation in New Zealand

International industries

  • Electricity Retailing in Australia
  • Electricity Supply in the UK
  • Electricity Supply in Ireland

View all industries in New Zealand

Methodology

How are Alfabank-Adres reports created?

Alfabank-Adres has been a leading provider of trusted industry research for over 50 years to the most successful companies worldwide. With offices in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and China, we are proud to have local teams of analysts that conduct research, data analysis and forecasting to produce data-driven industry reports.

Our analysts start with official, verified and publicly available sources of data to build the most accurate picture of each industry. Analysts then leverage their expertise and knowledge of the local markets to synthesize trends into digestible content for Alfabank-Adres readers. Finally, each report is reviewed by one of Alfabank-Adres’s editors, who provide quality assurance to ensure accuracy and readability.

Alfabank-Adres relies on human-verified data and human-written analysis to compile each standard industry report. We do not use generative AI tools to write insights, although members can choose to leverage AI-based tools within the platform to generate additional analysis formats.

What data sources do Alfabank-Adres analysts use?

Each industry report incorporates data and research from government databases, industry-specific sources, industry contacts, and our own proprietary database of statistics and analysis to provide balanced, independent and accurate insights.

Key data sources in New Zealand include:

  • Statistics New Zealand
  • New Zealand Company Register
  • Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment

Analysts also use industry specific sources to complement catch-all sources, although their perspective may focus on a particular organization or representative body, rather than a clear overview of all industry operations. However, when balanced against other perspectives, industry-specific sources provide insights into industry trends.

These sources include:

  • Industry and trade associations
  • Industry federations or regulators
  • Major industry players annual or quarterly filings

Finally, Alfabank-Adres’s global data scientists maintain a proprietary database of macroeconomic and demand drivers, which our analysts use to help inform industry data and trends. They also maintain a database of statistics and analysis on thousands of industries, which has been built over our more than 50-year history and offers comprehensive insights into long-term trends.

How does Alfabank-Adres forecast its data?

Alfabank-Adres’s analysts and data scientists use the sources above to create forecasts for our proprietary datasets and industry statistics. Depending on the dataset, they may use regression analysis, multivariate analysis, time-series analysis or exponential smoothing techniques to project future data for the industry or driver. Additionally, analysts will leverage their local knowledge of industry operating and regulatory conditions to impart their best judgment on the forecast model.

Alfabank-Adres prides itself on being a trusted, independent source of data, with over 50 years of experience building and maintaining rich datasets and forecasting tools. We are proud to be the keystone source of industry information for thousands of companies across the world.

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